Iran has agreed to allow international nuclear inspectors to view its recently revealed uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom, and President Obama has called talks between U.S. diplomats and their Iranian counterparts about the country's nuclear program a "constructive beginning."

However, recent events and heated rhetoric concerning Iran's nuclear program are reminiscent of the final days that lead to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 when then U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell presented the United Nations Security Council on February 5th of that year with what he called "solid" evidence that showed Iraq had still not complied with resolutions calling for it to disarm and was maintaining a secret WMD program. It seems that history is repeating itself.

Unlike what happened to Iraq in 2003, an invasion of Iran is not on the horizon; however, the prospect of targeting its nuclear facilities is more real than ever. More so than during the Bush Administration. The reason is simple: no amount of pressure or sanctions will force Iran to ab

andon what it perceives as its "unalienable right" to pursue its nuclear ambitions.

In an article in June, I outlined the drive behind Iran's nuclear ambition, and this has not changed. But most importantly the Obama Administration, although pursuing diplomatic means, seems to be convinced that the Iranians are conducting a clandestine nuclear program parallel to the public one. The aim of this, though of course not admitted by the Iranians, is clearly the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This position is shared by Israel, which will most likely get the green light to attack Iran's nuclear facilities by spring of 2010 when all negotiations with Iran will have hit a dead end.

Since April of this year, the Israeli military has been preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran's nuclear facilities. The United States and Israel have recently conducted their most complex military exercise ever, jointly testing three ballistic missile defense systems. Among the steps taken to ready Israeli forces for what would be a risky raid requiring pinpoint aerial strikes are the acquisition of three Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft and regional missions to simulate the attack.

The Israeli Air Force has recently been conducting training exercises involving F15 and F16 jets, helicopters and refueling tankers flying to distances of more than 870 miles: the distance between Israel and Iran. Among recent preparations by the air force was the Israeli attack of a weapons convoy in Sudan allegedly bound for militants in the Gaza Strip.

A recent article in the British Daily Express reported that Israeli fighter jets have been allowed to use Saudi airspace to launch go-it-alone air strikes on Iranian nuclear installations. The issue has been discussed in a closed-door meeting in London, where British Intelligence Chief Sir John Scarlett, his Israeli counterpart Meir Dagan, and a Saudi official were present. According to the report, Scarlett has been told that Saudi airspace would be at Israel's disposal should Tel Aviv decide to move forward with his military plans against Iran. The Saudis have denied such claims; however, for the past few weeks Saudi-sponsored media has been raising concern over the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. No mention of Israel's 200 plus nuclear warheads.

A survey just released by the American Jewish Committee reports that for the first time ever, a majority of American Jews support using military force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Fifty-six percent of American Jews think U.S. should strike Iran, while sixty-six percent of Israeli Jews back such an attack.

How many Americans support an attack on Iran?

Fifty-seven percent of American voters say Israel would be justified in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, given that Iran has publicly threatened to annihilate Israel, according to a McLaughlin poll conducted on May 8-9.

I am not being an alarmist, but the writing is on the wall.

Watch video.

Article first published in the Huffington Post.

For this week's Global Pulse episode, Iran’s Power Players, host Erin Coker asks the question: Are Khamenei and Ahmadinejad playing "good cop, bad cop"? Share your thoughts below!

In the nearly three months since Iran's disputed election and the massive street protests that followed, global media have turned their attention to the internal factional bickering within Iran's ruling party. Allegations of detainee abuse have created further fissures within Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's conservative government, with the country's leadership offering conflicting responses to the allegations.

Reacting to claims made by opposition candidate Mehdi Karroubi of detainee torture and sexual abuse, Iran's parliament speaker Ali Larijani vehemently dismissed the allegations as "sheer lies," according to a CNN report. Larijani's remarks contradicted police and judiciary officials who acknowledged detainee abuse at the now-shuttered Kahrizak prison and promised to investigate the claims. According to The Guardian, an unnamed Iranian MP said he had proof of the abuse, further contradicting Larijani.

As this week's episode points out, Ahmadinejad and the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have also appeared at odds over abuse allegations. According to a report that ran on the state-controlled Press TV website on August 28th, Ahmadinejad blamed the abuse on an enemy plot, saying that he had evidence which "exonerated revolutionary, military, security and intelligence forces." But three days later, following a report that the detained son of a conservative political advisor had died as a result of abuse, the BBC reported that Ayatollah Khamenei promised the young man's father that those responsible would be brought to justice.

The confusing signals reflect factional struggles at the highest levels of government, which can only be aggravated by the Iranian blogosphere's relentless pursuit of allegations of torture, sexual abuse and killings of detained protesters, often through chilling personal accounts. On September 2, the independent Radio Zamanah’s website reported that a rape victim and key witness in the case had disappeared. Mentions of the story surfaced several times throughout the day on the microblogging site Twitter, alongside posts like "Regime, No matter how many you execute, torture, or rape. We will never stop. We will never give up on our right to freedom," and, "Saeedeh's body was burned & almost unrecognizable (note that she was arrested from her house, so burning was deliberate)."

Even after the dust has settled on the present internal political struggle, it may take more than damage control to bridge the divisions between the Iranian government and its people.

You might think that Iranians live in total information isolation, and have little idea what is being said in the U.S. and other Western countries. Watching Link TV's documentary "The Dish", about Iran's national obsession with satellite TV, will quickly disabuse you of that notion. And this week, Link TV expanded its global reach when the Tehran Times, Iran's major English-language daily newspaper, reprinted Mosaic Producer Jamal Dajani's latest article in the Huffington Post, "Iraq: Talk is Cheap, Blood is Cheaper". Though the Tehran Times is hardly a progressive, pro-Western media outlet, claiming that "it must be a loud voice of the Islamic Revolution," it does frequently include reports from international news agencies such as the Associated Press, Reuters, and now, even our own Jamal Dajani, to keep its readers informed of outside news and opinion.

If you missed Dajani's excellent Mosaic Intelligence Report from Friday, which expands upon his Huffington Post article on Iraq, we encourage you to watch it below. And to stay updated on what's really going on in the Middle East, follow Jamal Dajani on Twitter, and subscribe to his weekly Mosaic Intelligence Report enewsletter.

And a reminder: to keep Mosaic going, we rely on donations from our viewers. So if you value Mosaic, the Mosaic Intelligence Report and Link's other great programming focused on the Middle East and more, be sure to donate today, in any amount. We need to hear from you!

Three American hikers who have been detained in Iran since July 31st, including Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd, and Josh Fattal, apparently unwittingly strayed over the border from Iraqi Kurdistan, according to a fourth member of their party, Shon Meckfessel. Meckfessel, who did not join his friends on the ill-fated hike, wrote in a statement that the four were travelling in Iraqi Kurdistan on vacation, and his friends went off on a recommended hike to popular tourist destination Ahmed Awa, an area known for its lovely waterfall. Apparently unaware that Ahmed Awa was near the Iranian border, the three were detained while hiking in the area by Iranian authorities, and have yet to be released. Meckfessel writes, "I hope that people understand my friends' presence in the area for what it was: a simple and very regrettable mistake."

With the recent release of journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee from North Korean custody, thanks to a deus ex machina intervention from former U.S. President Bill Clinton, the question being asked in the Iran case is where diplomacy goes next. Have Clinton's actions in North Korea piqued the interest of the Ahmadinejad regime, perhaps empowering them to turn these hikers into pawns in a greater diplomatic game with the United States? Iran has detained many Americans over the years, most recently arresting Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, charged with instigating post-election violence.

The story of one of these hikers, freelance journalist and documentary photographer Shane Bauer, was featured in today's episode of Democracy Now below, which airs on Link TV. Bauer, an Arabic speaker and graduate of the University of California at Berkeley, delivered a report for Democracy Now in February 2009 on U.S. military alliances with Iraq's Sunni militias.

Rupa, who fronts the April Fishes is certainly a multi faceted creature. A doctor, a musician, a painter, a linguist, she is someone who doesn't just sing about life, she plunges in with both feet.  She spent quite a bit of time talking to me in New York about the various bandmembers and singing their praises (sorry Fishes, I didn't use that stuff --and readers, it IS an excellent band!) but eventually we got down to some of the subjects that drive her.

A documentary about the band's trip along the border between Mexico and the USA is in production.

On another note, there is a very moving video that while as commercial as it gets, cuts to the heart. It is an homage to Neda, and all the young people who have demonstrated and suffered during the recent government crackdown in Iran. The majority of people living in that country are now below the age of 30-- Possibly the largest demographic on earth of educated young people to be held back by their own government. These days we all know we are watching history when we watch Iran.

The ripples continue to spread outward.

Iran is slipping off the media radar, finding itself replaced by the global mourning rituals for Michael Jackson, Wall Street's continued decline, and the latest Republican career-ending train wreck. But there is still a story in Tehran, and it's not a happy one.
 
As Nobel laureates call for the release of prisoners and a full investigation into Iran's human rights violations, the Guardian UK has developed an amazing interactive tool to track those killed or arrested in the unrest. And our own Michal Shapiro's World Music blog has unearthed a music video dedicated to Neda Agha Soltan, whose disturbing killing, broadcast on YouTube, made her an unwitting symbol of the crisis.

Iran's youth are at the center of this stalled revolution, and their discontent was apparent well before the first protests began in Tehran. Six months ago, this prescient video was posted to YouTube, proclaiming Iran as a "nation of bloggers":


Of course, technology - and the micro-blogging service Twitter in particular - played a critical role in organizing June's mass street demonstrations. An op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor has even nominated Twitter for a Nobel Peace Prize, as the "megaphone" of Iran's new youth movement. While Mosaic's own Jalal Ghazi is skeptical, arguing well that Iran "cannot be explained in a Twitter feed", Twitter is proving its mettle in the crowded world of news distribution, and is a service that Link TV is using more and more. It remains to be seen whether Twitter can successfully foment true revolution, but we'll continue to keep an eye on Iran's young twittering generation.

Jalal Ghazi, Associate Producer of Mosaic, recently had an article featured on Anderson Cooper's blog, in which he explains why the complex situation in Iran cannot be easily understood via the terse, rapidfire posts on Twitter or through simple newsfeeds:

Read the entire article at New American Media.

Almost two weeks after the heavily disputed Iranian elections, the question still remains: Was the election rigged? According to the Guardian Council’s spokesman, Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, “[There were] No major irregularities in Iran's election,” yet they have requested a 5 day extension to continue their investigations. Meanwhile on the streets of Tehran, people continue demonstrating and get beaten and killed as a result, as a report from McClatchy News describes.

My name is Shams, a pseudonym. My parents are from Iran and Pakistan and I was born in the U.S. I grew up in all three countries and speak all three languages fluently. I spent my teenage years growing up and attending school in Tehran. I have been living in the U.S. for the last 9 years. As I watch events unfold in Iran, I can’t help but feel a mixture of guilt, rage, excitement and reservation. On one hand, after having lived under the Islamic Regime and experiencing the oppression first-hand, I know how exciting and incredible these demonstrations are and how much hope they are eliciting worldwide. Yet, on the other hand, I have strong reservations and doubts about what the Iranian government wants the world to know or see and what is actually happening behind closed doors.

Chaos has been allowed to erupt in Iran because the rulers are divided. On closer observation, there is a lot happening in the leading ranks. Clerics, parliament members and other civil servants have been voicing concerns over the elections and the violence that has ensued in opposition to the results. Ahmadinejad, supported by Iran’s Supreme Leader, is seen in this video, meeting with clerics and talking about a change that will take away the right to vote. While Rafsanjani, his main rival and head of the Assembly of Experts, held an emergency meeting with the same body to discuss post-election matters. This body also has the constitutional power to depose the Supreme Leader. According to the Huffington Post, Rafsanjani’s meeting was seen as a possible threat to the current government and brought about the immediate arrest of his relatives as “a clear warning from the hard-line establishment to a cleric who may be aligning himself with the opposition.”

When I lived in Iran, life was normal in the most basic sense of the word. We had our parties, met with boys, ate, drank and made merry, but all out of sight of the authorities. Yet, we wanted more. We wanted the chance to voice our opinions without being arrested or shut down. We wanted the ability to walk down the street without being persecuted for what we were wearing or not wearing. We wanted to listen to music and show our art publicly, even if it had controversial subjects. But we were too afraid. We were afraid of all that we heard from those who had gotten arrested and beaten for speaking out, wearing what they wanted to, or listening to loud rock music…

I returned to visit in 2005, when Ahmadinejad had just won the elections, and what I saw was very disheartening. I saw a population of young and talented people wasting away by means of drugs, alcohol and a general sense of indifference. No one was concerned about rights or freedoms; they just wanted to escape reality.

At this pivotal moment in history, I watch the demonstrations and masses of people all over the country pouring into the streets, speaking their minds and standing together, with tears in my eyes. It has made me wildly joyful and filled with hope to know that those same indifferent people from a few years ago are rising up to the challenge of fighting for what they want: freedom.

So, what will become of my people and country? All I can do is pray that none of the lives that have been lost, the suffering or the anguish experienced is in vain, and that whatever change takes place is for the best and is defined by the people.

The conflict in Iran has brought media attention to a diverse group of young Iranians. As David Michaelis stated in his recent blog post, "Iran has gained a new face. Instead of relating to Ahmadinejad as the only face of Iran, we now see a multitude of younger people."

Link TV has been producing a series of documentaries to give Americans a unique glimpse into the lives of ordinary Iranians, called Bridge to Iran.  Showcasing documentaries by contemporary independent Iranian filmmakers living and working in Iran, Bridge to Iran shatters preconceived notions about a nation and culture that most Americans know little about and have never experienced firsthand.

Tonight marks the premiere of a new installment of the series: Cinema Encounters in Tehran. An original production of Link TV, the film follows Americans Yoni Brook and Musa Syeed as they travel to Iran for the 2007 Verite Film Festival, where they meet two young filmmakers Atefeh and Abbas. The film documents their efforts to overcome language and cultural barriers and use cinematic language and friendship to create a movie.  In the end they find that the friendship and understanding they develop in a short time transcends the barriers of the national and political divisions that separates them.

Watch Online!

The unique character of the revolt in Iran has been the power of the fast SMS/Twitter tools and the younger age group that used it. Those who grew up using their thumb as a main tool of communication  also know that they are breaking new grounds. There are no rules for this political game, and the modes of expression and their strategic models are written while hitting the ground.

The Iranian crowds are living through the "largest increase in expressive capability in human history," as defined by Clay Shirky, author of Here Comes Everybody.

Iranian youth know that the authorities can try to follow them, but they also know that fast and furious is the way to go. The authorities will always be a step behind.

The greatest effect of the whole phenomenon is that Iran has gained a new face. Instead of relating to Ahmadinejad as the only face of Iran, we now see a multitude of younger people. We have human rights movements that will make a difference for the future. The USA and Israel, which have often held a one-dimensional view of Iran, will have a new challenging set of questions to answer.