The ongoing violence is most likely coming from the growing al Qaeda type groups that feed on the desperation of the Palestinian refugee camps. They are the ones who might see a benefit from chaos.

The tribal warlords GeaGea and Jumblatt are fighting for the confessional system which protects their power. They are joined by the March 14th crowd and Hariri who has been advised by his Western supporters not to compromise or give away any power while they ship more and more weapons into the country. The recent shooting shows that they are running out of patience and Sulieman is getting dragged in to their camp.

I think it would be counterproductive for the opposition to be directly inciting violence, and they have generally been smarter than that. Their tactics have been to find a sensitive point and sit on it until something gives, and they appear to be continuing on that course. Hizbollah is muscling up however, with Michel Aoun still in their camp, and Nasrallah is sounding a little more shrill than usual.

The situation doesn't look good to me.

Mr. Dajani, I am very impressed...your predictions are on target though I wish you are sometimes wrong. Today, the Lebanese army shot at Shia demonstrators the type of thing that can cause a civil war.

And of that 65 member majority,of Parliament,how MANY:
-have a GOOD CLEAN conscience about their political actions/decisions?
-have purely the interests,of the ordinary Lebanese people,AT HEART?
-are sworn to keep the country united as a Nation,against all outside(or internal) subversive influences?
-are ALREADY on the 'payroll' of special interest/agenda groups to the detriment of the Lebanon as a peaceful Nation?
-are M.P's that can be trusted to not 'sell' themselves to the highest bidder,ignoring the ethics,morals and safety interests of the Lebanese people?
In other words, how many of these National Public Servants are uniters of their Nation and NOT covert dividers?
-Can the Lebanese people stand together calmy and rationally,even without a government,against those who obviously want them to fall into chaos,pain,mayhem/civil war and death?
Because AGAIN,chaos is a useful instrument for war-mongers and this will leave the Lebanese open and vulnerable to outside predators AGAIN and still closed,as a war-zone,to the rest of the world.
SO,CAN THE PEOPLE STAY CALM AND NOT RISE TO THE 'WAGGLING' CARROT ON THE STICK? Especially if the carrot contains only 'inedible'?
Peace,Salaam,Shalom!

The Parliament is currently scheduled to elect a new President of the Republic on 11 February 2008.Under the article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution, a qualified majority of two thirds of the members of the 128-seat Lebanese Parliament is required to elect the president. After the second round of election, the president is elected by a simple majority of 65 MPs out of 128.

Mosiac,When you say "Parliament" will elect a new President,will that be vote of the population(National election) or a vote just within the politicians?
I would TRULY hate to see Lebanon in a civil war.I despise all those who delibarately orchestrate this action.
Why must this whole historically magnificent region,the beautiful fertile crescent of God,WHO IS THE ESSENCE OF LOVE,PEACE and TOLERANCE,be CONSTANTLY in a State of Emergency,a state of death and hatred and petty greed? All these peoples,Christian,Muslim,Jews share the SAME God,genes,blood,heritage,history.In modern times(not to mention ancient ancient history),ever since the European Mandates finished,people have been at each others throat like pit-bulls,poked and prodded by cruel 'owners' to fight MORE AND MORE,to gain personal profit at the expense of the blood of their children and to keep them further from ANY INTERNATIONAL PEACE on equal humanitarian terms.
Personally,I don't CARE who is behind the assassinations,they are all SCUM and very distant from God and good conscience. Don't blame the pit-bulls in the blood-soaked pit,BLAME THE OWNERS WHO PUT THEM THERE and train them to kill! Hold them accountable.
The Lebanese people deserve,and have a right to,an elected(by the majority)leader.
"I'll believe it when I see it"? I don't know......
I hope AND PRAY,that I see it,SOON!
Guns and bombs are easy,in comparison to dialogue and mutual respect which take a lot more courage and strength.But,which is the most positive AND PRODUCTIVE for all in the future!

At least five people were killed and several wounded today in an explosion that destroyed cars in a Christian suburb of Beirut.

The intended target was Wisam Eid, a captain in a Lebanese police intelligence unit seen as a close ally to the ruling coalition leader, Saad al-Hariri. Last month a car bomb killed the army's chief of operations, Brigadier General Francois al Hajj, in east Beirut. While less than two weeks ago, a car bomb aimed at a US embassy vehicle killed three people and wounded 16.

This week, during a nationwide labor strike over rising prices, hundreds of people staged angry protests across Lebanon, blocking roads and preventing travelers from reaching the airport.

Lebanon has been without a president since the pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his term in November of last year. Parliament is due to hold a vote on February 11 to elect a new president, but as a Lebanese friend tells me, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

Who is behind the latest spree of assassinations? And will Lebanon break into a civil war?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu3mOmK0TCc