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International Support for Ahmadinejad?

A week has passed since the disputed Iranian elections, and reliable information from Iran has been more and more difficult to come by. One relatively well-publicized event though took place Tuesday, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flew to Russia to participate in his first foreign policy trip as Iran's newly re-elected president. The reason: a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a political alliance between Russia, China, and several former Soviet states, with a few nearby nations like Iran maintaining "observer" status.

 

While nations like the U.S., Germany, and France expressed concern that only massive vote fraud led to Ahmadinejad's re-election, a far warmer reception lay in wait at the SCO. "The Iranian elections are the internal affair of the Iranian people," declared Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov. Ahmadinejad spoke briefly, criticizing the U.S. and the "international capitalist order" while ignoring the rising protests back home.

 

Ahmadinejad's SCO speech was brief, but its symbolism important. Russia and China's warm reception for a "stable" yet undemocratic Iran speaks to a larger push to organize developing nations in alliances that exclude nations like the U.S. Shortly after Ahmadinejad's return to Iran, the SCO played host to a summit of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), which represent the most influential of developing economies. According to a Goldman Sachs report, by 2050 the BRIC nations could surpass the current leading economies, with smaller developing nations like Iran rivaling Canada and Italy in total output.

 

In the streets of Tehran today, there is still hope that a promised vote recount will yield a fair result. But friends of electoral justice in Iran would do well to take note of the indifference of many global players to the outcome in light of other economic and political ends.

 
 

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"A New Greeting to the World" in Iran?

In recent weeks, news reports from Iran depict the run-up to this Friday's presidential election as a raucous affair replete with street parties in Tehran and shocking debate theatrics. Some commentators note that Iran's urban youth are coalescing behind the candidacy of Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister who promises to improve Iran's international image and who is deemed the strongest challenger to current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. For his part, Ahmadinejad draws support from the urban and rural poor who have benefited from generous government subsidies and loans under his watch.

 

The newly energized campaigns fly in the face of suggestions that Iran's presidential elections don't matter, since the unelected Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue to control key military and political power regardless of the victor. This is the view held by many U.S. conservatives, who are opposed to "dialogue" with Iran and who have criticized President Obama for pursuing diplomatic rather than military means in the Middle East.

 

But there are also suggestions that many Iranians considered life to be better under Mohammad Khatami, the president from 1997 to 2005 who promoted stronger relations with the West. In recent days, Moussavi's supporters have taken to the streets dressed in green and waving portraits of Moussavi with "A New Greeting to the World" written in English underneath. As occurred in Lebanon last week, where pro-Western parties defeated Hezbollah candidates, the Obama administration is quietly hoping for a more moderate political turn in Iran.

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on the latest developments in Iran here.

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Why the U.S. Cannot Ignore North Korea

The Obama administration would like to turn its full foreign policy attention to the Middle East today. But as last week's nuclear test reveals, North Korea remains the country that will not fall off the crisis radar. Last night, candlelight vigils were held in at least nine American cities to call for the release of Euna Lee and Laura Ling, two CurrentTV journalists arrested in March on the North Korean border and who are to go on trial today in Pyongyang. A guilty verdict is considered likely, and the two could face five to ten years in a labor camp.

 

The journalists' plight is one delicate aspect of negotiations at the U.N., which is considering cracking down on the trade of luxury goods into North Korea. One rationale is that Kim Jong Il, known for his love of fine wine, exotic seafood, and tropical fruits, could at last share in the deprivation that has afflicted so many of his countrymen. And according to U.N. reports, this deprivation may only be growing. In May, a U.N. World Food Program spokesperson claimed that North Korea was only receiving 14% of the food resources needed to feed a majority of its 8.7 million people.

 

The crisis gains added urgency when one considers the militaristic calls this week by the American right to launch strikes against North Korea. Such a move would surely not help the captured journalists, though it could further inflame the nuclear ambitions of the North Korean leadership, set to soon include Kim Jong Il's reported successor, his son Kim Jong Un.

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on the latest North Korean developments here.

 
 

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Obama's Quiet Environmentalism

In a season of a high-profile Supreme Court nomination, economic stimulus, and early health care negotiations, why are we hearing so little about the Obama administration's environmental and energy policy?

 

The answer may lie in Obama's use of terms like "clean coal," "carbon capture and storage," and "cap and trade" that imply more a gesture of environmentalism rather than a full-scale energy revolution. In recent weeks, Obama has deferred to House Democrats to craft a climate change bill that creates the first carbon emissions trading system loosely modeled on EU energy policy. The plan though, in giving away 85% of carbon trade permits to industry for free, sets far more modest goals than the EU system for reducing carbon emissions.

 

Obama has been even more quiet about a $2.4 billion rollout this month of "clean coal" investments designed to reduce the environmental impact of coal-powered energy. Environmentalists like Al Gore mock the very idea of clean coal power, but similar programs are being implemented in the EU and China as economic stimulus measures.

 

Even as energy policy takes a back-seat to other administration priorities, there is still pressure to move quickly on new programs. Obama has promised to raise substantial revenue from carbon emissions trading to help pay for expenses like universal health care. Also, there is hope that Obama will sign on to global energy standards this December in Copenhagen to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which previous U.S. administrations never implemented.

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on "clean coal" policy here.

 
 

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A Brutal End to Civil War in Sri Lanka

The government of Sri Lanka declared Wednesday a national holiday to celebrate this week's end to a 26-year civil war fought against the Tamil Tigers. While images emerged of jubilation in the streets of Colombo, news reports from the last battle front in the northeast depicted a grave state of affairs that could jeopardize long-term hopes for peace. According to UN figures, at least 7,000 civilians have died since January in the cross-fire between government military and dwindling Tamil Tiger forces. Sketchy reports are also emerging of 42 government-run internment camps where upwards of 300,000 Tamil civilian refugees have been interned in recent months.

 

At the same time, verifiable battleground facts are hard to come by in Sri Lanka. The Red Cross has been shut out of the northeast region, as have other international aid organizations and media. Many, including the pro-Tamil voices at TamilNet, fear for the safety of the island nation's Tamil minority, which comprise 12% of the population. Unlike in other recent conflict hot spots like the Sudan and the Balkans, there has been little talk of involving international forces in keeping the peace. If anything, the government has gained political cover through its linking of the fight against the Tamil Tigers to a larger global "war on terror."

 

"To protect the Tamil population in this country is my responsibility and duty," Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa proclaimed in an address to the nation early this week. Rajapaksa delivered the lines in Tamil, a hopeful sign perhaps of a new reconciliation. But later on he also emphasized, "we don't want advice from other country about how we should treat our people." Coming at the end of a war that has killed in the range of 90,000 Sri Lankans, it is difficult to be convinced that the suffering is now fully over.

 

Watch the Global Pulse video on Sri Lanka here.

 
 

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A Good Start for Jacob Zuma in South Africa?

South Africa's new president Jacob Zuma assumed power this week with no shortage of controversy trailing him. Derided over the years as a terrorist, a communist, and an uneducated polygamist, Zuma arrived at the presidency having recently beaten back charges of rape and corruption. Free market devotees worry that Zuma will unravel South Africa's free trade policies. And on the left, observers are clamoring for the former freedom figher and long-time ANC leader to address the nation's epidemic poverty, crime, and HIV/AIDS infection rates.

 

But with all the speculation of dramatic change, Zuma's first week can't but seem a bit anticlimactic. Saturday's inauguration ceremony was marked by the appearance of Nelson Mandela to whom Zuma kneeled before addressing the nation. Zuma's midweek cabinet selection provided hope to both partisans on the right and left and pleased a broad cross-section of the South African press. Even the Mail & Guardian cartoonist Zapiro, a long-time Zuma satirist, agreed to depict the new president in a more conciliatory light.

 

Still, South Africa's inaugural week was not without its controversy. Opposition leader Helen Zille accused Zuma of putting his three wives at risk of contracting HIV and therefore was unfit to tackle social policy. BBC News further published a report that detailed Zuma's use of the nation's growing spy services, particularly for his defense against corruption charges.

 

Will Zuma prove to be a leader to unite South Africa? Or will critics prove justified in their skepticism of his ability to lead?

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on Jacob Zuma here.

 
 

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A Mortal Threat? Where History Fails Us in Pakistan

How should we view the recent resurgence of Taliban activity in Pakistan?

Be afraid, very afraid.

That’s a common message voiced by media and political observers in recent weeks. Pakistan’s government could go the way of the Shah of Iran in 1979, writes the Wall Street Journal editorial page. Taliban threats to Pakistan’s leadership represent the worst global crisis since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, a RAND Corporation official tells the Financial Times.

 

And it’s hard not to be moved by the devastation occurring in Pakistani regions like the Swat Valley. Doctors Without Borders announced today that it was halting medical services to refugees in Swat due to escalating warfare.

 

But could all this fear of a Taliban takeover in Pakistan be blinding the U.S. to local realities? An Economist report notes that for all the Taliban’s repellent acts in Swat, the Pakistani military has engendered deep local hostility by its brutal strikes on civilian targets. Rather than pushing for further billions of dollars in military aid for Pakistan to stave off an unlikely Taliban takeover, U.S. leaders would do well to pay more attention to the shaping of local hearts and minds. Central Asia Institute, the education non-profit co-founded by Three Cups of Tea author Greg Mortenson, is one example of a worthy U.S. effort to build rather than break human capital in Pakistan.

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on Pakistan here.

 
 

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Swine Flu: Time to Panic?

We're feeling a bit calmer about the swine flu today. Planes are flying empty to Mexico and 30,000 restaurants lie quiet across the Mexican capital. But as the first week of swine flu hysteria draws to a close, the Mexican death toll appears to have stabilized and fears of a mounting global apocalypse have yet to materialize.

 

We're more prone now to heed the words of pandemic skeptics, like virologists that contend the swine flu mortality rate is likely to be not far off the typical seasonal flu death rate. We are also swayed by histories of the epic false alarm that was the last swine flu outbreak in 1976.

 

Still, for panic-watchers we do note the beta launch of Google Flu Trends for up-to-date tracking of swine flu spread across Mexico. And for those who opt to don a face mask when venturing out of home, recognize that a mask can fast become porous as it absorbs humidity.

 

Does the arrival of swine flu constitute real reason for alarm? Or like SARS and the avian flu before it, is this more a minor local than major global tragedy?

 

Watch the Global Pulse episode on swine flu here.

 
 

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Global Lessons for U.S. Torture Policy?

The Bush administration's detainee interrogation tactics are front and center in a new U.S. Senate intelligence committee report that implicates Condoleeza Rice as an early proponent of torture techniques. While Liz Cheney and other former Bush officials defend tactics such as waterboarding as a means to prevent terror, we are tracking ways in which societies elsewhere have responded to revelations of state torture.

 

Susan Benesch at the Huffington Post draws parallels with Argentina and Chile, where early attempts to forgive officials accused of torture during military regimes in the 1970s and 1980s have more recently led to criminal trials and imprisonment. Just two weeks ago, former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori received a 25 year prison sentence from Peru's Supreme Court for his role in massacres of left-wing rebels in the 1990s.

 

And at Real Clear Politics, Pierre Atlas proposes the U.S. look to the U.K. and Israel, whose judiciaries struck down the use of torture to fight perceived terror threats posed by Irish and Palestinians respectively. Meanwhile, this week's U.S. Senate intelligence report itself notes that waterboarding was previously the domain of brutal despots like Pol Pot in Cambodia.

 

Can the U.S. draw useful lessons from global responses to state torture? Or will Americans chart a new and unique path to reconciliation?

 
 

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A Chinese Road to Recovery?

China's economy is slowing as it is the world over. One cause is the dramatic recent drop in U.S. consumption of Chinese imports. But nearly every day now, we are reading of deals struck by China that promise to turn the economic tide in Beijing's favor.

 

In Latin America and Vietnam, Chinese firms have signed deals to expand natural resource production. The New York Times reports that deals made in recent weeks in Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina, and Brazil include terms designed to decrease demand for the U.S. dollar. From Vietnam, TIME interviews locals fearful that China's plans to mine bauxite will result in devastating environmental and job losses.

 

China's military is also assuming a more aggressive stance. The state navy hints that it may soon develop an aircraft carrier and expand its global missions along the lines of recent anti-piracy sorties in the Gulf of Aden.

 

The Economist though predicts China could chart a more peaceful route to recovery. This scenario would include long-term investment in domestic priorities such as public transit and health care. Chinese officials are reportedly "fascinated" by European models of welfare and public health, and could cooperate with the EU on future projects.

 

Can China achieve economic recovery in a manner that is peaceful and sustainable? Or should we remain skeptical of a world shaped by Chinese priorities?

 
 

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