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A Chinese Road to Recovery?

China's economy is slowing as it is the world over. One cause is the dramatic recent drop in U.S. consumption of Chinese imports. But nearly every day now, we are reading of deals struck by China that promise to turn the economic tide in Beijing's favor.

 

In Latin America and Vietnam, Chinese firms have signed deals to expand natural resource production. The New York Times reports that deals made in recent weeks in Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina, and Brazil include terms designed to decrease demand for the U.S. dollar. From Vietnam, TIME interviews locals fearful that China's plans to mine bauxite will result in devastating environmental and job losses.

 

China's military is also assuming a more aggressive stance. The state navy hints that it may soon develop an aircraft carrier and expand its global missions along the lines of recent anti-piracy sorties in the Gulf of Aden.

 

The Economist though predicts China could chart a more peaceful route to recovery. This scenario would include long-term investment in domestic priorities such as public transit and health care. Chinese officials are reportedly "fascinated" by European models of welfare and public health, and could cooperate with the EU on future projects.

 

Can China achieve economic recovery in a manner that is peaceful and sustainable? Or should we remain skeptical of a world shaped by Chinese priorities?

 
 

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North Korea: Where Truth Lies

Was it a missile test or a space launch? Did it fall into the sea or put a satellite into orbit? While most media sources agree that North Korea failed at testing a missile, the North Koreans insist they successfully launched a satellite. The North also launched a propaganda assault inside the country, including patriotic songs supposedly transmitted from orbit and 1950s-style “space age” imagery.

 

SOURCES: Chosun Central Television, North Korea; KBS, South Korea; FCI, Japan; CCTV, China; NHK, Japan; ABC News, U.S.; Al Jazeera English, Qatar.

 

 
 

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Who's Afraid of Kim Jong Il?

This week, Global Pulse examines international reaction to North Korea's weekend missile launch. According to most world media, the launch was a failure and resulted in the missile's harmless fall into the Pacific Ocean. But Pyongyang insisted the missile reached outer space as a satellite, using the event to reintroduce Kim Jong Il in his first public appeareance since August.

 

Photo footage of Kim in front of North Korea's Parliament showed the leader suffering from weight loss, though he appeared more healthy than some had predicted in the wake of a rumored stroke in August. The Financial Times speculated that Kim's actions could push East Asia into a new arms race as South Korea and Japan escalate their military response capabilities. The Washington Post though noted that a similar 2006 missile launch was followed only weeks later by North Korea's willingness to return to diplomatic negotiations.

 

Is Kim Jong Il a leader to be feared, and perhaps met with military force? Or is this most recent missile launch merely the work of an increasingly frail and marginalized despot?        

 
 

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A Russia-China Challenge to the Dollar?

On the heels of a G-20 summit that saw U.S. President Obama play peacemaker in several multi-national disputes, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev reignited talk yesterday of replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Medvedev's words echoed an argument initiated in March by a Chinese central bank official, and to varying degrees supported by world leaders from Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

 

Last fall, Global Pulse reported that China and Russia had agreed to construct a new oil pipeline connecting the two nations, and that the dollar would not be used in any financial transactions. At the time, we asked if Russia and China could be establishing a long-term alliance designed in part to isolate the influence of U.S. currency.

 
 

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The Fall of the Dollar?

In recent weeks, speculation is rife that the dollar could fall as the world's reserve currency. The storm began last week when Chinese central bank official Zhou Xiaochuan suggested that the dollar be replaced by International Monetary Fund units known as "special drawing rights" that are based on a basket of global currencies. The following day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner briefly alarmed traders with his comments in support of expanding IMF use of SDRs to combat recession.

 

No sooner had the markets calmed when a political fury began to whip among U.S. conservatives. Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota led the charge, introducing legislation to "prohibit a global currency" and touting her message on the airwaves. A Rasmussen poll found that 88% of Americans feel it is "important that the dollar remain America's currency."

 

But to the center and left, a less fearful analysis prevails. The Economist notes that SDRs have yet to catch on as a global means of exchange and represent in total a miniscule fraction of China's foreign exchange portfolio. And today, Paul Krugman dismisses China's consideration of a global currency as mere denial of how trapped it is by the staggering size of its U.S. Treasury holdings.

 

Should the U.S. be doing more to protect the dollar? Or could a new global currency help promote worldwide cooperation in economic recovery?

 
 

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