Mosaic Blog

US-Iran war of words: bluster or sign of imminent conflict?

An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in Tehran today after a motorcyclist attached a magnetic bomb to his car. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was a chemistry expert and director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. Varying opinions are quickly emerging over who is to blame for the attack. Iran blames the US and Israel for the attack. "Does anyone doubt that some combination of the two nations completely obsessed with Iran's nuclear program...are responsible?" asks Glenn Greenwald of Salon.com. Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations, however, is of a different opinion. He asks, "But is it in US national interest to bomb Iran to defend the principle of full cooperation with the IAEA? I would say no." 

 

Roshan's death comes amid mounting tension between the US and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Earlier this week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun enriching uranium at 20 percent at the Fordow plant near the city of Qom. The plant is buried deep underground a military site and is said to be far more resistant to military strikes than existing plants. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton responded to the news with a harsh tone."This step once again demonstrates the Iranian regime's blatant disregard for its responsibilities and that the country's growing isolation is self-inflicted," she said in a statement.

Map of Iran uranium enrichment facilities.

 

Since November 2011, the US and EU have taken significant steps to cut Iran out of the international financial network after IAEA published a report stating that Iran was involved in activities relevant to the development of nuclear weapons. Iran immediately slammed the report as politically motivated and a fabrication by the US. Tehran claims its uranium enrichment program is for nuclear research and peaceful energy purposes. "No one has a full sense of the Iranian production plan there," said one diplomat who has studied the few details released by Iran about the Fordow plant. "And I think that’s the point." Meanwhile, former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolten, says the Iranians are "testing Western powers' resolve to stop their advance towards developing a bomb."

 

Iran's releationship with the West has steadily declined in recent weeks as the US enacted sanctions on Iran's central bank on January 1, and the EU is expected to impose an embargo on Iranian oil by the end of the month. Western sanctions seek to undercut the Iranian government by halting the country's largest source of revenue: oil sales. The Iranian Economic Minister, Shamseddin Hosseini, likened the sanctions to "an economic war." On December 27, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that if the West followed through with its threats, Tehran would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-mile strategic waterway through which nearly one fourth of the world's oil passes every day. In the back-and-forth war of words, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta responded to the threat by saying that closing the strategic waterway would be a "red line" for the US.

 

Meanwhile, while Iran concluded a massive ten-day naval exercise last week stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden, some observers remain skeptical that US-Iran relations will escalate into a full-blown conflict. Iran analyst Michael Connel says the most likely outcome is "more bluster." Afshon Ostovar of Foreign Policy Magazine says that initiating a conflict with the US would be "a last-ditch, kamikaze act by the Iranians." However, he added, "as opportunities for compromise evaporate, and as relations continue to sour, the likelihood of war is steadily increasing."

 
 

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Freed In Iran: US Hikers Urge Freedom for All Political Prisoners

American hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer were released yesterday after over two years in Iranian prison on allegations of trespassing and spying for the US. Fattal and Bauer were arrested, along with travelling companion Sarah Shroud, while hiking in Iraqi Kurdistan in July 2011. On August 20, 2011, Fattal and Bauer were sentenced to eight years in prison. The American hikers were released yesterday on $500,000 bail and taken to Oman where they were reunited with their families.

 

Some analysts believe that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad strategically announced the release of Fattal and Bauer just weeks before his visit to New York for the annual UN General Assembly in order to receive a warmer welcome by the US and project a noble and gracious image among fellow world leaders at the UN. Others believe it was a tactical move in the ongoing political feud between Ahmadinejad and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ahamenei. Only a day after his announcement, the Iranian judiciary denied the president's statement and said the hikers' release was 'not imminent.'

 

Democracy Now's Amy Goodman interviews Shon Meckfessel, who was also travelling with the trio in 2009, but who stayed at the hotel the morning of their hike because of a cold. 

 

 
 

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Tonight on Mosaic: World powers react to Syria's "Int'l Protection Friday"

 

Syria: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his country is ready to host a meeting of Islamic nations in order to help Syria solve its problems. His statement came as demonstrations occurred in a number of Syrian cities today in what activists called the "Friday of International Protection." Head of the Russian Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee Mikhail Margelov said his country's position on the situation in Syria will not change. He expressed Moscow's opposition to any foreign interference to find a solution to the Syrian crisis. 

 

Yemen: Protestors took to the streets today in several Yemeni cities in response to a call by the youth of the revolution for a "Peaceful Revolutionary Escalation" against Ali Abdullah Saleh's the ruling regime. The opposition hopes the movement will break the political deadlock in Yemen caused by the absence of the Yemeni president, who is still in Saudi Arabia receiving treatment for injuries sustained during an assassination attempt in June.

 

Egypt: Tens of thousands of demonstrators have once again taken to Cairo's iconic Tahrir Square, demanding the military government be replaced with a civilian one. Protestors gathered in the square after the Friday prayers to join the protest dubbed "Correcting the Path." Protestors say all political prisoners must be released and an investigation launched into the conduct of officials responsible for the violence used against them. Activists are angry over the slow pace of reform by the ruling military council and want a clear road map and comprehensive timetable for transition in Egypt. 

 

 
 

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Tonight on Mosaic: U.S. drops support for Yemen's Saleh as violence escalates

Violence in Libya continues today, coinciding with a heated political confrontation between Muammar Gaddafi’s regime and the rebel leadership, the Libyan Transitional National Council. The Council has rejected the Libyan regime’s proposal that one of Gaddafi’s sons assume power during a transitional phase. They received an additional boost as Italy announced that it officially recognizes the Transitional National Council as the only legitimate representative of the Libyan people. Al-Jazeera reports that Gaddafi’s regime seems to be looking for an exit strategy after being isolated by the international community and experiencing increasing internal pressure from the revolutionaries. 

 

The BBC reports that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is attempting to implement immediate reforms in light of ongoing protests and the dozens of deaths resulting from the security forces' crackdown on demonstrators. President Assad said he would appoint a new governor of Dara'a, the southern state where tensions have been the highest. Prime Minister Adel Safar has been told to form a new government, following the resignation of Naji al-Otari's administration. Safar is affiliated with the ruling Baath Party and his appointment spawned large-scale protests.

 

Dubai TV is reporting from Yemen, where ongoing clashes between the Yemeni authorities and protestors have left several dead and many injured. As the violence in Yemen escalates, the US, which has long supported President Ali Abdullah Saleh, has quietly shifted its position and said Saleh should be eased out of office.


The Gulf Cooperation Council has decided to hold talks with the Yemeni government and opposition leaders in an attempt to solve the escalating crisis in the country. Nile TV reports that the Council's foreign ministers have accused Iran of conspiring against the region’s countries and of interfering in their affairs by fueling sedition and religious division among their citizens.

 

New TV features a profile on Ali Shariati, a “philosopher and teacher of the Islamic Revolution.” While he inspired revolutionaries across Iran, he spent much of his life either in exile or in prison and was considered an infidel in Iran because of his criticisms of the authority of religious leaders and their distortion of holy texts.

 

 
 

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Egypt Takes Next Steps While Unrest Spreads

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, tasked with running Egypt since former President Hosni Mubarak stepped down, met today with the new constitutional amendment committee. The Supreme Council has given the committee, headed by Tareq al-Bishry, ten days to complete its task. Meanwhile, protests continue in the streets as the Coalition of the Youth of the Revolution call for a civilian interim government to be created by next month.

 

Iran's ruling government, rocked by protests in the summer of 2009, again faces fierce opposition. Demonstrators in the capital of Tehran clashed with police, leaving one protester dead and nine officers injured. The Iranian parliament has just reconvened, and conservative MP's have come down hard on opposition leaders.

 

On to Lebanon, where thousands commemorated the sixth anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. His son, current Premier Saad al-Hariri, joined the crowd in a Muslim-Christian prayer aimed at attaining peaceful religious coexistence within Lebanon. Al-Hariri is promoting dialogue to strengthen national unity.

 

Activists in Yemen organized demonstrations in the capital of Sana'a today to demand the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh has promised to step down in 2013 when his term expires, and has declared his office is open to Yemeni citizens. Various international human rights organizations have condemned the Saleh government's treatment of protesters.

 

Bahrain too has been rocked by violence in recent days. One person was killed and 20 hurt yesterday, while security forces killed another protester today. Bahrain's king, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, extended his condolences to the families of those killed. Demonstrations were centered on Manama, the capital, but extended into rural areas as well, resulting in the shutdown of most of the country.

 
 

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