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US-Iran war of words: bluster or sign of imminent conflict?

An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in Tehran today after a motorcyclist attached a magnetic bomb to his car. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was a chemistry expert and director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. Varying opinions are quickly emerging over who is to blame for the attack. Iran blames the US and Israel for the attack. "Does anyone doubt that some combination of the two nations completely obsessed with Iran's nuclear program...are responsible?" asks Glenn Greenwald of Salon.com. Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations, however, is of a different opinion. He asks, "But is it in US national interest to bomb Iran to defend the principle of full cooperation with the IAEA? I would say no." 

 

Roshan's death comes amid mounting tension between the US and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Earlier this week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun enriching uranium at 20 percent at the Fordow plant near the city of Qom. The plant is buried deep underground a military site and is said to be far more resistant to military strikes than existing plants. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton responded to the news with a harsh tone."This step once again demonstrates the Iranian regime's blatant disregard for its responsibilities and that the country's growing isolation is self-inflicted," she said in a statement.

Map of Iran uranium enrichment facilities.

 

Since November 2011, the US and EU have taken significant steps to cut Iran out of the international financial network after IAEA published a report stating that Iran was involved in activities relevant to the development of nuclear weapons. Iran immediately slammed the report as politically motivated and a fabrication by the US. Tehran claims its uranium enrichment program is for nuclear research and peaceful energy purposes. "No one has a full sense of the Iranian production plan there," said one diplomat who has studied the few details released by Iran about the Fordow plant. "And I think that’s the point." Meanwhile, former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolten, says the Iranians are "testing Western powers' resolve to stop their advance towards developing a bomb."

 

Iran's releationship with the West has steadily declined in recent weeks as the US enacted sanctions on Iran's central bank on January 1, and the EU is expected to impose an embargo on Iranian oil by the end of the month. Western sanctions seek to undercut the Iranian government by halting the country's largest source of revenue: oil sales. The Iranian Economic Minister, Shamseddin Hosseini, likened the sanctions to "an economic war." On December 27, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that if the West followed through with its threats, Tehran would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-mile strategic waterway through which nearly one fourth of the world's oil passes every day. In the back-and-forth war of words, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta responded to the threat by saying that closing the strategic waterway would be a "red line" for the US.

 

Meanwhile, while Iran concluded a massive ten-day naval exercise last week stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden, some observers remain skeptical that US-Iran relations will escalate into a full-blown conflict. Iran analyst Michael Connel says the most likely outcome is "more bluster." Afshon Ostovar of Foreign Policy Magazine says that initiating a conflict with the US would be "a last-ditch, kamikaze act by the Iranians." However, he added, "as opportunities for compromise evaporate, and as relations continue to sour, the likelihood of war is steadily increasing."

 
 

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2011: The Year of the People

This time last year, Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire, sparking a popular uprising in Tunisia that spread to countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa. The uprisings have come to be known throughout the world as the "Arab Spring" and have caused more change in one year than the region has seen in decades. For months, chants across the Middle East echoed, "The people want the downfall of the regime." Only a month after Tunisians ousted Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, it took the Egyptian people only 18 days to overthrow Hosni Mubarak after being in power for 30 years. 

An anti-government protester displays paintings on her hand of other countries involved in the Arab Spring revolutions during a rally to demand the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa October 26, 2011. The words read, "Go out." REUTERS/Louafi Larbi

 

Shortly after the downfalls of Ben Ali and Mubarak, Libyans took up arms against Muammar Gaddafi. After ten months of violent battles that took the lives of thousands of civilians, Libyan revolutionaries claimed victory when Gaddafi was killed in his hometown of Sirte. 

 

Protestors in Yemen hope to turn a new page after months of bloody crackdowns as embattled ruler Ali Abudllah Saleh belatedly signed the Gulf-brokered deal that will transfer power in the country by early next year. 

 

In Syria, anti-regime activists are unyielding in their ongoing fight against Bashar al-Assad. As the death toll has reached over 5,000 according to the UN, the international community is slowly boosting efforts to end the months-long bloody crackdown. 

 

Protests and subsequent crackdowns have spread through Bahrain, Oman, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia but have received far less media attention.

 

In his article "From Tunis and Tahrir to Wall Street, and back again," UC Irvine Professor Mark Levine explains the common frustrations of people throughout the region. He states, "The lack of hope or possibility to find decent work, or overcome the corruption and repression there that defined life in [Sidi Bouzid, Bouazizi's hometown], was a microcosm of political and economic life in Tunisia under Zine Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt under Hosni Mubarak and most every other country in the region."  Khoda, a Syrian housepainter turned insurgent, had a different view: "In Egypt, the revolution started because of poverty and hunger," he said. "In Libya it started because of misuse of power. In Syria, the main purpose of the revolution is to gain back our dignity and our honour."


As the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are being hailed as successes by some, other observers aren't as optimistic that they will lead to the kinds of changes that protestors had hoped. Daniel Byman of the Washington Post predicts, "The Arab Spring may not bring freedom to much, or even most, of the Arab world. Even as the United States prepares to work with the region's new democracies, it also must prepare for the chaos, stagnation and misrule."


As we reach the one year mark of the start of the "Arab Spring," there are many lessons to be learned from the unparalleled and tumultuous revolutions that rocked the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. Mohamad Al-Ississ, a professor of economics at the American University of Cairo, says the fight is not over and that "this is the moment where we go forward or we go back to ground zero." Levine warns that "democracy is a means, not an end," pointing to our own Western system today that is "so dominated by money and power that inequality and corruption are reaching 'third world' levels."

 

Huguett Labelle, chair of Transparency International and author of  "The keys to change across the Arab world," offers wise words of advice to the future leaders of the Arab world: "listen to the people, or risk being overtaken by them."

 

Photo Credit: An anti-government protestor displays paintings on her hand of other countries involved in the Arab Spring revolutions during a rally to demand the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa on October 26, 2011. The words read, "Go out." REUTERS/Louafi Larbi 

 

 
 

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#Intifada1, 24 years later

Today marks the 24th anniversary of the outbreak of the First Palestinian Intifada, which was ignited on December 8, 1987 when four Palestinians were killed by IDF forces at the Erez crossing in Gaza. To commemorate the anniversary, a group of Palestinian youth sent out the following call:

 

We are also calling out to all the Palestinian bloggers in Palestine and in exile to dedicate their blogs on the 9th of December to honor the people of the First Intifada through writing stories from the Intifada or conducting interviews with the heroes, publishing videos or photos etc. We also call on Palestinian artists for a dedication in honor of the Intifada.

 

An Israeli soldier takes aim as a Palestinian woman hurls a rock at him from close range during a demonstration in the First Intifada. February 29,1988.

Ziad Hmaidan, activist, former political prisoner, legal researcher at the Al Haq human rights organization, and analyst for the Alternative Information Center said in an interview that the First Intifada was a unique example of a truly popular struggle "involving…people from every social and cultural strata and of every political background…as equal actors."

 

According to Sonja Karkar of the Electronic Intifada, "There was no doubt that this national movement gave every Palestinian a sense of empowerment, even though there were very few gains on the ground…The question that should weigh heavily on our consciences is — how many intifadas must be fought before justice for the Palestinians finally prevails?"


In an article titled, "Toward a true paradigm shift in Palestine," Ramzy Baroud examines how Palestinians today must continue their resistance that began over two decades ago. He states, "In the case of Palestine, a new beginning requires the total mobilization of all aspects of Palestinian society...The allegiance must not lie with any particular faction, but to Palestine itself, and the only unifying slogan should be 'Freedom.'"

 

The hashtag #Intifada1 has been created on Twitter to commemorate the anniversary as Palestinian bloggers and online activists unite under the same nationwide campaign of popular resistance. One blogger and activist tweeted, "24 Years after #intifada1, people still die for a free #Palestine, I salute The Martyrs of Occupation 2011"

 

Click here to see the First Intifada in pictures, here to see graffiti in Ramallah marking the anniversary, and here to see revolutionary posters from the Intifada.

 

Image credit: REUTERS/Jim Hollander. An Israeli soldier takes aim as a Palestinian woman hurls a rock at him from close range during a demonstration in the First Intifada. February 29,1988.

 
 

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Egyptian Elections Explained

After last week's violent clashes between protestors and security forces in Cairo's landmark Tahrir Square left 41 protestors dead and over 3,000 wounded , the first elections since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak and his regime began today as scheduled.  According to Marc Lynch of Foreign Policy Magazine, "Egypt has gone from having no democracy at all to having the most complicated system I've ever encountered," so here's a short breakdown of what's going on.

 

Parliamentary elections are being held in three stages over a period of six weeks. The first stage began today and will continue tomorrow, and runoffs will be held December 5 and 6. The first round is taking place in nine out of the 27 Egyptian governorates: Cairo, Alexandria Fayyum, Assiut, Luxor, the Red Sea, Port Said, Damietta and Kafr El-Sheikh. Egyptians are voting to fill 168 seats (out of a total 498) in the first round, 56 of which will go to independents and 112 to party-based candidates. 

 

Nearly 50 political parties and thousands of independent candidates are running in this year's parliamentary elections. The main parties are divided into four blocs: 

 

Egyptian Bloc: alliance of liberal parties campaigning for 'civil democracy and social justice' including the Free Egyptians Party, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and theNational Progressive Unionist Party.

 

Democratic Alliance: consists of 12 parties including the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, the Ghad Party, and the Dignity Party.

 

Islamist Alliance: conservative bloc mostly made up of Salafi parties, including al-Nour Party.

 

Revolution Continues: made up of socialist and liberal parties as well as the Revolution Youth Coalition. 

 

The second stage of elections will begin on December 14, and the third on January 3. Shura Council elections will begin on January 29 and end on March 11. Presidential elections are tentatively being held in June, according to the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces.  

 

According to the BBC, the elections seem to be running smoothly so far with a high turnout and few security issues. Long lines and delays were reported in Cairo and Alexandria and are being attributed to administrative and logistical problems.  

 

Here is a visual breakdown of Egypt's elections.

A man shows his ink stained finger after casting his vote at a polling station during parliamentary elections in Cairo 

 

 

Photo: A man shows his ink stained finger after casting his vote at a polling station during parliamentary elections in Cairo. Amr Dalsh / Reuters

 
 

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Back to Tahrir Square

"The revolution in Egypt is not over. It has hardly begun," writes Omeya El Naggar in an article titled "Will Egypt's Arab Spring Turn Into an Arab Nightmare." Egypt's Tahrir Square looked like a nightmare today, ten months after protests brought down Hosni Mubarak's regime, as clashes between protestors and police continued for a third consecutive day. Al Jazeera reports that 33 people have been killed and over 1,500 injured since Saturday. 

 

Protesters run from tear gas fired by riot police in a side street near Tahrir Square in Cairo

Thousands of protestors gathered in Tahrir Square, the symbolic epicenter of the Arab Spring, to demand the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) swiftly transfer power to a civilian authority and to protect their revolution from what they say is an attempt to hijack it. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to start on November 28, but presidential elections won’t be held until a new constitution is written, which could take up to a year. In the meantime, executive powers would remain with the army. 

 

According to the Cairo daily Al Masry al Youm, protestors were using firebombs and shotgun pellets against the police. At a brief news conference, a representative of the military, General Said Abbas, said that the security forces had not initiated any violence and had only defended themselves. This video however, shows police officers beating lifeless bodies and dragging others by their hair across the square. One activist tweeted, "There are protestors writing phone numbers on their arms so that in case they're killed their family members can be contacted. #Tahrir." Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh said the clashes were "very intense, with the people on the street telling us…that the military has shown its true colors."

 

In the face of such bloody protests, interim Prime Minsiter Essam Sharaf and his cabinet submitted their collective resignation. However, the military council reportedly announced they will not accept the resignation until Egyptian political forces decide on a replacement prime minister.  

 

In an article titled "Cairo Jumps the Rails," Marc Lynch says, "Now is a time for the Egyptian political elite to unify -- Islamist and non-Islamist, elite and popular -- around clear demands for a speedy political transition to civilian rule. Protestors, bloody and mourning their dead, will not be satisfied with minor political concessions." Others say it is easier said than done. In an increasingly heated and complex political climate, Al Ahram’s Elias Harfoush argues that "the ongoing competition…over the inheritance of Mubarak's regime has its justifications…Mubarak's absence has left a great vacuum  in the prime seat of power in the largest [and most populated] Arab country." In other words, the stakes are high. 

 

As over 20,000 protestors filled Tahrir Square on Monday night, activists are calling for a "million man march" on Tuesday to call for a new civilian government and national unity.  

 
 

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