Libya: The United Arab Emirates hosted the third meeting of the Libya Contact Group today with delegations from 40 countries and representatives from international and regional organizations in attendance. The Contact Group met in an attempt to activate a financial mechanism, which will help fund humanitarian aid to Libya and support the opposition’s National Transitional Council. UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed called on Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi to resign and expressed support for NATO's military operations in Libya. 

Yemen: The opposition continues to celebrate President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure from Yemen, considering it a victory for their revolution. Meanwhile, Saleh’s supporters celebrated news that he was released from the intensive care unit of the Saudi Arabian hospital where he recently underwent surgery. The respective celebrations got carried away when clashes erupted and several people from both sides were killed and injured. 

Syria: The state news agency SANA reported that Damascus has strongly condemned foreign intervention in Syria. Meanwhile, residents of Jisr al-Shughour continue to flee the violence, heading across the border into Turkey. The Turkish Anatolia news agency said that nearly 1,500 people have crossed the border in the past 24 hours. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan said Turkey’s borders will remain open to Syrian refugees at this stage and also urged President Bashar al-Assad to implement real reforms as soon as possible. 

Today on Mosaic, New TV reports on the Israeli air strikes in Gaza that targeted the neighborhoods of al-Shuja'eiya and al-Zaitoun and killed nine people, including several children. The public held funerals for the victims on what the government called the "day of mourning their souls." The mourners believe that Israel “carefully and deliberately” chose the timing of the attacks to occur while the world is preoccupied with the revolutions occurring throughout the Arab world.

Al-Jazeera reports that French fighter jets struck an air force base in central Libya early this morning. International coalition forces are continuing their military operations in the capital Tripoli for the fifth consecutive day. Colonel Gaddafi’s key military bases are located in Tajura, an eastern suburb of the capital that has been bombed three times since the beginning of coalition military operations. However, many political observers believe that the revolutionaries lack the necessary equipment and organization to fully benefit from the coalition air strikes and achieve a strategic victory in the eastern regions.

In Dubai, police foiled an attempt to smuggle a shipment of 16,000 firearms from Turkey to Yemen that was valued at 16 million Dirhams, the equivalent of two million dollars. During a press conference, the commander-in-chief of the Dubai police, Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, said that six people, including one Turkish citizen have been arrested. The seizure of the arms shipment is being hailed as a 'great accomplishment' by the Dubai police department.

Al-Alam reports from Yemen, where an army unit supporting anti-government protestors clashed with Republican Guard forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Medical sources and eyewitnesses said that three military officers were injured in the clashes that took place this morning. In a massive protest in the capital Sana'a, Yemenis demanded the downfall Saleh's regime, waved the Yemeni and Palestinian flag, and carried banners that read "Palestine is in our hearts." 

In Syria, 20,000 protestors attended the funeral for victims of yesterday’s violent clashes in Dara’a. Eyewitnesses say that Syrian security forces encircled al-Omari mosque on Wednesday at dawn before storming the mosque and opening fire on the people inside. According to reports, at least six people died and several others were injured. The BBC reports that Syrian state TV blames an “armed gang” for the incidents. The state-run media accused Arab and foreign satellite television channels of fabricating news.

There are remarkably few positive things to say about Iraq today. The country seems to be in perpetual upheaval since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Dozens of people were killed across Iraq just days ahead of the start of the holy month of Ramadan, and more will probably lose their lives in the coming few days when insurgents typically step up their attacks. Yet the Obama administration has recently announced that the U.S. is "on target to end the combat mission." The U.S. government plans to withdraw its combat troops by the end of August and to remove all troops by the end of 2011.

But Iraq's most senior military officer, Lieutenant General Babaker Zebari, said that his forces, particularly the air force, were not ready to take over, cautioning that his security forces will not be able to secure the country until 2020.

The country has been facing many domestic challenges, such as a period of Sunni Arab insurgency, bloody attacks by al-Qaeda, confrontations with al-Sadr militias, and the ongoing tensions between various political factions; however, it's Iraq's vulnerability to neighboring countries that Zebari was alluding to.

"If America withdraws its forces and one of the neighboring countries causes problems, then we're going to have a problem," Zebari said.

Meanwhile, in an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian last week,
Saddam Hussein's former deputy Tareq Aziz warned about a U.S. withdrawal and accused Barack Obama of "leaving Iraq to the wolves". Indeed, and even with the presence of 64,000 US troops in Iraq, both Turkish and Iranian troops have recently crossed Iraq's northern border in pursuit of Kurdish rebels. Last December, Iranian troops occupied an Iraqi oil well in the south, triggering popular outrage but little action from the Iraqi government.

It's worth mentioning that not everyone agrees with Zebari. A couple of days before his cautioning statement, General Ali Ghaidan, the commander of all Iraqi ground forces, told reporters at a news conference that his troops are "100 per cent ready" to take over.

But will the U.S. actually withdraw from Iraq?

Not really. Tens of thousands of U.S. troops will remain in the country to train the Iraqi army and provide it with logistical support. If need be, they will be engaged in combat missions. Meanwhile, the number of private contractors working for the U.S. in Iraq in sectors such as security, communications, utilities, and commerce is estimated at 100,000. This number is likely to increase significantly once the "combat forces" are gone, especially in the security sector.

Move on US Marines, here come Xe Services (better known as Blackwater)!

Meanwhile, the political stalemate between Nouri el- Maliki and Iyad Allawi if not resolved might soon trigger a major political upheaval, something that may cause the Iraqi government with its fragile coalitions to collapse; the last thing the Obama administration needs while withdrawing the troops.

It took 21 days for the U.S. armed forces to reach Baghdad and topple Saddam Hussein, but leaving Iraq is proving to be more complicated than invading it.

Article originally published on the Huffington Post
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Will it be a strike against Iran by the U.S. and or Israel? Will there be political upheaval in Egypt after Mubarak's reign? And will Israel invade Lebanon or Gaza? These are some of the questions that can be heard on the streets of Cairo, Amman, and Beirut.

2010 is far from over, yet we have witnessed a series of close encounters in the Middle East that created major tensions and pushed everyone to the edge: a war on the Yemeni Saudi border, rapid deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey over the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon over the cutting of a tree, and the looming prospect of an attack on Iran to mention a few. But what's really troubling is how fast attitudes have changed towards President Obama from a year ago; specifically in the period after newly-elected Barack Obama delivered his "New Beginning" speech to the Arab and Muslim worlds from a podium at the University of Cairo in Egypt.

Just yesterday, on Thursday, August 5, a poll released by the Brookings Institute in conjunction with Zogby International revealed a substantial change in the assessment of President Obama, both as President of the United States and of Obama personally. According to the poll, early in the Obama Administration, in April and May 2009, 51% of the respondents in six Arab countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates) expressed optimism about American policy in the Middle East. In the 2010 poll, only 16% were hopeful, while a majority - 63% - were discouraged.

The poll's results show another dramatic shift in public opinion on Iran's potential nuclear weapons status. While the results vary from country to country, the weighted average across the six countries is telling: in 2009, only 29% of those polled said that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be "positive" for the Middle East; in 2010, 57% of those polled indicate that such an outcome would be "positive" for the Middle East.

So what's wrong with earlier assessments that Arab countries were "freaked out" by a nuclear Iran?

Unfortunately the US government, and to a larger extent western reporters, have been spoon-fed this information by intelligence apparatuses of certain despotic Arab regimes. No one bothered to ask the average person on the street this question.

Although the poll was conducted before Obama's recent confirmation of the end of all combat operations in Iraq by the end of August, Arabs believe that the troubles of Iraq are far from being over. July has been a very deadly month in Iraq.

Recently, Saddam Hussein's former deputy prime minister, Tareq Aziz, has accused the US president of "leaving Iraq to the wolves."

Last but not least: "Palestine is still the issue" to borrow from John Pilger's title. The poll leaves little doubt that the major decline in Obama's popularity has a lot to do with the disappointment in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Arabs have lost hope that President Obama will be able to deliver on his promises.

I've been in and out of the Middle East five times this year, and if tension could be described as a cloud, you'd need a knife to cut through the one created by recent political events in the region. Everyone seems edgy and expecting war. President Obama must act fast to bring back some of the magic he had early on in the region with his messages of "hope" and "change". Now he needs to deliver on real promises before it is too late.

Article originally published on the Huffington Post
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Mark my words, Gilad Shalit is coming home. He will soon be set free but not because of German mediations or the thousands of appeals made by his parents and their supporters. He's coming home because Bibi needs Gilad more than Gilad needs him.

In a television address aimed at countering public pressure for the government to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, said that "Israel is willing to pay a heavy price for the release of Shalit, but not at any price."

The man with the "three no(s) : no withdrawal from the Golan Heights, no discussion of the case of Jerusalem, no negotiations under any preconditions," finds himself in a position to reluctantly say yes to negotiations with Hamas, a "terrorist' organization in his book, an entity he was keen to topple from day one.

Mr. Netanyahu said that he would release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in return for the freedom of Gilad Shalit, who has been held in captivity in Gaza for the past four years.

Netanyahu's address comes five days after the family and supporters of Shalit began a protest march from the Shalit's Galilee home to the prime minister's official residence in Jerusalem.

Noam Shalit, Gilad's father, dismissed Netanyahu's speech and said that he was "recycling statements made by Olmert in March 2009."

Noam is probably right, but Netanyahu is in trouble. Since assuming office in April 2009, he has managed to destroy Israel's global standing, and alienate if from its closest allies. Here is how:

The "Settlement Freeze" Saga

The saga began a few days into his term following Barack Obama's speech in Cairo over a request for a freeze on new settlement construction in West Bank Jewish settlements to encourage peace talks with the Palestinians. Mr. Netanyahu rejected the goodwill gesture.

The fallout over the settlements hit a pinnacle when Vice President Joe Biden was greeted in Jerusalem with the announcement of the approval of more settlement construction by the Israeli Interior Ministry in Occupied East Jerusalem. This was contrary to U.S. wishes and complicated Biden's mission to help jump start the peace process. This was followed by the snubbing of Mr. Netanyahu at the White House, and the rest is history.

The Mossad Dubai Debacle

The issue here is not about the Mossad's "reality TV" operation in Dubai, nor the comedy of errors that ensued. The operation became a diplomatic disaster for Israel when it was revealed that the members of the Mossad hit squad blamed for the assassination of a Hamas commander in Dubai used fake British passports, as well as those from several other countries. The repercussions from the Dubai Debacle are still felt today. The recent arrest of a member of the Dubai hit squad in Warsaw is threatening to disrupt relations between Israel and two of its closest allies in the EU, Poland and Germany.

The Flotilla

The raid on the Gaza flotilla is another fiasco operation that happened under Netanyahu's watch causing worldwide condemnation of Israel. The boarding and seizure of six ships of the Gaza Freedom Flotilla in May 2010 resulted in the deaths of nine passengers, eight Turks and one American. It also resulted in rapid deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey, a NATO member and the first Muslim majority country to recognize Israel. Although not-so-secret talks by Israel and Turkey are underway to repair relations, the damage has been done. Turkey's Prime Minister Erdoğan has made it clear that the Israel-Turkey relationship had been irreparably damaged.

Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS)

The boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) effort against Israel is getting progressively worse for the Netanyahu government in Europe and the United States. Several trade unions, academics, and artists have now joined the movement. Israel's War on Gaza spurred the campaign in the United States and around the world, but most recently, Israel's raid on the Free Gaza flotilla has added fuel to it. In an unprecedented move, dockworkers in Oakland, California recently refused to cross a picket line to unload a ship from Israel.

Against this rapidly deterioration of Israel's standing in world opinion, Netanyahu has to make a move to restore its image and his credibility as well. Short of launching another war, Gilad Shalit's release appears to be his best option for either creating a diversion or positive news to help him do this.

Article originally published on the Huffington Post
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